Vistra reports US$2.38B adjusted EBITDA and sets 2027 outlook
The generator forecasts US$4.3B to US$5.1B in adjusted free cash flow before growth, with acquisition payments reducing liquidity.
Ines Halvorsen
For the quarter ended Sept. 30, Vistra Corp. NYSEVST reported US$2.378 billion in ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA on Friday, alongside its first 2027 earnings outlook. That compares with US$1.581 billion in the third quarter of 2025, according to its Nov. 6 results release.
For 2027, the Texas electricity generator and retailer forecast ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA of US$7.7 billion to US$8.5 billion. Its adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance is US$4.3 billion to US$5.1 billion, leaving growth investment outside that cash-flow measure.
Vistra shares rose 9.79 per cent to US$123.94 on the New York Stock Exchange as of 1:03 p.m. EST on Friday, according to the NYSEVST quote on Google Finance.
The earnings increase came from higher realized energy and capacity prices, contributions from acquired generating plants and the return of Martin Lake Unit 1 to service. Quarterly net income reached US$1.14 billion, compared with US$652 million a year earlier. The 2026 result included US$559 million in unrealized gains on hedges expected to settle in future years.
Vistra also raised the midpoint and narrowed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to US$7.1 billion to US$7.5 billion. Its adjusted free cash flow before growth range is now US$4.3 billion to US$4.7 billion, the Nov. 6 release said.
"This summer brought record weather across our markets, including the new all-time peak demand records in July in both ERCOT and PJM," Vistra president and chief executive Jim Burke said in the release.
The company had hedged approximately 98 per cent of expected 2027 generation as of Oct. 30. That proportion falls to approximately 78 per cent for 2028.
Growth Spending Sits Outside Cash-Flow Guidance
Vistra's Nov. 6 presentation defines adjusted free cash flow before growth as operating cash flow excluding changes in margin deposits and working capital, adjusted for maintenance capital spending and other items. It is a non-GAAP measure, so the forecast is not cash remaining after all investment.
The acquisition and financing payments are already visible in liquidity. Vistra reported US$2.743 billion in cash and cash equivalents at Sept. 30, within total available liquidity of US$8.923 billion.
In October and November 2026, it paid approximately US$2.2 billion in cash for Cogentrix Energy and repaid approximately US$1.7 billion of debt assumed with that acquisition. It also redeemed US$1 billion of preferred stock during that period.
Those transactions, together with borrowing the full capacity of its accounts-receivable financing facilities, reduced available liquidity to approximately US$5.4 billion on a pro forma basis, the Nov. 6 release said. The cash outlays sit alongside the company's plans to return capital through repurchases.
Peer Talen Energy Corporation NASDAQTLN also introduced a higher cash-generation outlook for 2027. Its Nov. 3 release forecast adjusted free cash flow of US$1.5 billion to US$1.75 billion. The companies' adjusted measures should not be treated as interchangeable.
Read more: Talen Energy reports lower Q3 profit as adjusted cash flow rises
As of Nov. 2, Vistra had approximately US$2.5 billion of remaining share-repurchase authorization after its board approved an additional US$1.5 billion. The company expects to use the remaining authorization no later than year-end 2028.
