An entire generation of non-smokers could prevent 1.2 million deaths from lung cancer across the planet, according to a new first of its kind simulation study.
Released on Friday, the study is led by researchers from the University of Santiago de Compostela, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and global collaborators from The Lancet Public Health journal.
A simulation study suggests that banning cigarette and tobacco product purchases for individuals born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths across 185 countries by 2095.
The findings indicate that establishing a “tobacco-free generation” could significantly reduce smoking’s future impact on lung cancer deaths. Smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death worldwide. It’s the primary risk factor for lung cancer. It also contributes to over two-thirds of the annual 1.8 million deaths from the disease.
No countries currently have laws banning the sale of tobacco to young people. New Zealand recently repealed legislation prohibiting the sale of tobacco products to anyone born in or after 2009.
Few studies have analyzed the effects of banning tobacco sales to specific age groups or generations. Most studies focus on potential health benefits rather than death rates. This new simulation study is the first to evaluate how implementing a tobacco-free generation would impact future lung cancer deaths.
Researchers focused on individuals born between 2006-2010. The legal age for purchasing tobacco is 18 in most countries.
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Researchers used lung cancer death data from non-smokers in study
Researchers predicted future lung cancer death rates using historical data from 82 countries recorded in the WHO Mortality Database. They applied these estimated rates to data from GLOBOCAN 2022, the global cancer statistics platform by IARC, to project lung cancer rates for people born between 2006 and 2010 across 185 countries.
“Lung cancer is a major killer worldwide, and a staggering two-thirds of deaths are linked to one preventable risk factor—tobacco smoking. Our modelling highlights how much there is to gain for governments considering the implementation of ambitious plans towards creating a tobacco-free generation,” said author Dr. Julia Rey Brandariz, University of Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
“Not only could this save huge numbers of lives, it could massively reduce the strain on health systems of treating and caring for people in ill health as a result of smoking.”
The analysis derived from the simulation study estimates that eliminating smoking among those born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths in 185 countries. This would reduc total lung cancer deaths in this birth cohort by 40.2 per cent by 2095.
“While rates of smoking in high-income countries have fallen in recent years, lung cancer remains a leading cause of death and disease. In low- and middle-income countries, which have rapidly growing populations of young people, the impact of banning tobacco sales could be even greater,” said author Dr. Isabelle Soerjomataram, International Agency for Research on Cancer.
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Greatest reduction would happen in upper-middle income countries
Furthermore, the researchers estimate that nearly half of expected lung cancer deaths in men could be prevented. Upper-middle-income countries would see the greatest reduction, with 64.1 per cent of lung cancer deaths prevented. The impact would be especially significant in Central and Eastern Europe where 74.3 per cent of potential deaths averted.
In women, high-income countries would see the most lives saved, with 62.0 per cent (212,300 of 342,400 deaths) prevented.
Overall, most of the potential prevented deaths would occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Estimates here suggest almost two-thirds of the potential deaths avoided would be in these countries. The other potential deaths avoided would be in high-income countries.
The research displays the long-term benefits of strict tobacco control measures, especially those that limit young people’s access to tobacco. These measures could lead to significant healthcare savings and improved life expectancy.
The study adds to the ongoing debate on reducing tobacco use. It provides data that supports legislative efforts to prevent young people from starting smoking.
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