Retail, solar demand makes China's silver imports ascend to record high
The outlook for the metal in 2026 is generally bullish despite recent pullback
Rowan Dunne
China imported a record amount of silver last month. The country brought in 836 tons, according to new Chinese customs data.
That figure beats the 10-year seasonal average for March by 173 per cent. Imports also jumped 78 per cent from February. Year-to-date totals hit 1,626 tons, the highest on record.
Retail investors fuelled much of the surge. They bought small silver bars as a more affordable alternative to gold. Solar manufacturers also rushed to stock up. They front-loaded purchases before an export tax rebate ended on Apr. 1.
China dominates global solar production, and the industry uses about 20 per cent of the world’s silver each year. As the top silver consumer, China now pulls in far more of the precious metal than usual to meet both investment and factory demand.
This import boom signals tight supplies worldwide. Silver demand has outstripped new mining output for five straight years, and analysts expect a sixth deficit in 2026.
Silver’s outlook for the rest of 2026 stays strongly bullish for many forecasters. Citigroup Inc NYSEC ETRTRVC has predicted that spot prices could hit US$150 per ounce in the coming months. The bank has referred to silver as “gold on steroids” due to its accelerating demand for the production of solar panels, electric vehicles, AI data centres and electronics.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSEJPM expects silver to remain elevated at around US$81 but does not foresee the immense gains that Citi has predicted. That price is still more than double 2025 levels. Moreover, Commerzbank AG OTCMKTSCRZBY FRACBK expects the commodity to hit approximately US$90 by year-end.
Strong Chinese buying and global green-energy/clean tech growth has been supporting predictions like these. However, other analysts have warned of risks associated with sinking too much cash into silver.
TD Securities has a more bearish outlook for the metal, expecting it to slide down as low as US$44 per ounce this year. The investment bank has pointed to softening industrial demand if prices stay high. Additionally, solar makers are already testing cheaper metals and thinner silver layers to cut costs.
Read more: Gold and silver hit hard by Iran conflict
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