Antofagasta raises cost guidance and sets 2027 copper output range

For 2027, copper production is forecast at 630,000 to 690,000 tonnes, Antofagasta plc LONANTO said in its third-quarter production report on Thursday. The Chilean miner raised its 2026 cash-cost forecast before by-product credits to US$2.60 to US$2.70 per pound. The previous range was US$2.40 to US$2.60 per pound, with elevated diesel prices driving the revision.

Net cash-cost guidance for 2026 remains US$1.15 to US$1.35 per pound after credits from by-products such as gold and molybdenum. The revised forecast raises the midpoint before credits by US$0.15 per pound, while leaving the net cost midpoint unchanged.

Third-quarter copper production reached 151,900 tonnes, up 7 per cent from the previous quarter, as Los Pelambres increased output. Production for the first nine months was still 8 per cent lower than a year earlier, at 436,900 tonnes.

Antofagasta kept its 2026 copper production target at 625,000 to 655,000 tonnes. Its new outlook for 2027 reflects higher copper grades at Los Pelambres, partly offset by lower grades at Centinela Concentrates. The midpoint of the 2027 range is 20,000 tonnes above the midpoint of the retained 2026 target.

Los Pelambres produced 79,300 tonnes of copper in the third quarter, up 17 per cent from the preceding quarter, according to the Oct. 15 report. That included the drawdown of approximately 7,000 tonnes of inventories accumulated in the previous quarter. Lower throughput following July's severe weather and a temporary operating pause partly offset the improvement.

The quarterly cost figures show how weaker by-product credits absorbed the benefit of higher copper output. Before credits, third-quarter cash costs fell to US$2.73 per pound from US$2.94 in the preceding quarter. Higher production at Los Pelambres and lower treatment charges helped reduce those costs.

By-product credits fell 15 per cent to US$1.35 per pound in the third quarter, reflecting lower by-product output and lower realised gold prices. Net cash costs consequently edged up to US$1.38 per pound from US$1.36 in the preceding quarter.

"Construction activities across our major growth projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres are progressing well, and we have entered the final phases of each schedule, ahead of construction and commissioning activities completing in 2027," chief executive Iván Arriagada said in the report.

Commissioning Is Scheduled To Finish In 2027

In its Oct. 15 update, Antofagasta said two Centinela unions representing approximately 20 per cent of Centinela's own employee workforce had declared a strike after the quarter ended. Negotiations were continuing, according to the report.

Antofagasta said construction and commissioning activities at its major Centinela and Los Pelambres growth projects remain scheduled to finish in 2027. Its 2026 capital spending forecast remains US$3.4 billion, excluding Zaldívar.

At Centinela, the primary crusher and overland conveyor began initial operation during third-quarter pre-commissioning. The conveyor reached its nominal operating speed in testing, and key parts of the material handling circuit completed integrated tests without a load.

At Los Pelambres, hydraulic testing began on the lower section of the concentrate pipeline during the third quarter. Desalination expansion work included pre-commissioning alongside installation of electrical cabling and pumping-station equipment.

Rio Tinto plc LONRIO NYSERIO also retained its annual copper outlook in its Oct. 14 production report, at 800,000 to 870,000 tonnes for 2026. It reported a 27 per cent year-over-year increase in third-quarter copper production at Oyu Tolgoi.

Read more: Rio Tinto keeps 2026 guidance as Oyu Tolgoi copper output rises 27 per cent

Antofagasta's next scheduled production report is due in January 2027. It will include the company's 2027 cash-cost and capital spending guidance.