Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney returned from the United Arab Emirates with a headline-grabbing pledge.
The Gulf state committed to invest USD$70 billion in Canada, covering energy, AI logistics, mining and several other strategic sectors. Furthermore, Ottawa framed the trip as part of a broader pivot away from U.S. trade dependence as Donald Trump’s tariffs reshape global commerce. Carney’s government wants to double non-U.S. exports within ten years and attract $1 trillion in new investment over five years.
Carney said Ottawa is also working to finalize a USD$1-billion project that will expand Canada’s critical minerals processing capacity. He told the Canada–U.A.E. Business Council that the deal would create jobs and increase the long-term supply of minerals needed for advanced manufacturing. He suggested that more details will follow soon.
Canada’s ambitions come as global pressure mounts to diversify mineral supply chains. Many of these minerals power electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels and defense technologies. However, China dominates most stages of the sector. According to the International Energy Agency, China holds an average market share of 70 per cent for 19 of 20 key minerals. It refines 91 per cent of rare earth elements. In 2024, it controlled 96 per cent of refined graphite, 78 per cent of refined cobalt, 70 per cent of refined lithium and 44 per cent of refined copper.
Further, Canada’s own production base is far smaller. It is a major producer of only two minerals: potash and uranium. While Canada belongs to the top group of producers for cobalt, graphite, lithium and nickel, it contributes just 5 per cent of global mine output for each.
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China’s processing control gives it leverage
Meanwhile, Australia supplies 37 per cent of world lithium, Indonesia produces 59 per cent of world nickel, China extracts 69 per cent of rare earth elements and 79 per cent of graphite, and the Democratic Republic of Congo mines about three-quarters of global cobalt.
China’s control of processing gives it considerable leverage. Beijing has tightened export rules on rare earths, graphite, antimony, gallium and germanium. Antimony is used in flame retardants, ammunition, semiconductors and grid-storage battery alloys. Consequently, many governments now view the mineral as a strategic priority.
Canada operates several domestic facilities that process aluminum and uranium, and it maintains a few copper, nickel and zinc smelters. However, it has little or no refining capacity for lithium or rare earth elements. This gap presents a major challenge for any attempt to build full supply chains within the country.
Additionally, Canada’s first rare earths refinery opened in Saskatchewan in 2024. The CAD$74-million plant aims to produce 400 tonnes of NdPr metals each year, used for powerful permanent magnets. China, by contrast, produced 83,697 tonnes of NdPr in 2024.
The United States still receives 52 per cent of all Canadian mineral exports and 63 per cent of Canadian critical minerals. Much of this material leaves Canada early in the value chain, and further processing usually occurs after export.
Canada has tried to move up the chain. Its 2022 Critical Minerals Strategy set out a plan to secure supply, attract investment and expand domestic processing. The federal list includes 34 minerals deemed essential for economic or national security reasons. The list includes antimony.
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Canada has 45 graphite, lithium and rare earth projects
Ownership patterns reveal another issue. Maps published in HillNotes show that 30 of the country’s 55 critical mineral mines are owned by Canadian-based companies. The remaining 25 mines belong to firms headquartered in Brazil, the United States and Switzerland. The Tanco mine in Manitoba, which produces cesium, tantalum and lithium, is also fully owned by a Chinese company.
Canada is home to 45 advanced graphite, lithium and rare earth projects. Thirty-one are owned by Canadian-domiciled companies. Among them, NevGold Corp (CVE: NAU) (OTCMKTS: NAUFF) (FRA: 5E50) appears in the field with early-stage antimony assets tied to its exploration portfolio. The company promotes antimony as a future growth area as demand increases for flame retardants and grid-battery alloys.
Only eight of Canada’s 32 critical mineral processing centers are owned by Canadian companies. In addition, the rest belong to parent companies based in the United Kingdom, United States, Switzerland, Brazil, France, Germany and Luxembourg.
At the end of October, the federal government announced the first round of projects under a G7 critical minerals alliance. The initiative further aims to counter China’s dominance by building supply networks among allied countries. Global News also reported that the 25 approved items include offtake agreements for a Quebec graphite mine and funding to expand rare earth processing in Ontario.
Nouveau Monde Graphite’s Matawinie project near Montreal secured an agreement for future production. The federal government, Panasonic (TYO: 6752) and Traxys, a Luxembourg firm, each committed to purchase part of the mine’s output.
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Rare earth elements has significant potential
Canada also agreed to support a Norwegian company’s plan to build a synthetic graphite plant in St. Thomas, Ontario. Vianode said earlier this year that it signed a multi-billion-dollar supply deal with General Motors (NYSE: GM). Export Development Canada may finance up to $500 million of the Ontario project. Graphite plays a central role in EV battery anodes.
A Ucore Rare Metals (CVE: UCU) (OTCMKTS: UURAF) facility in Kingston, Ontario, also received conditional approval for up to $36 million in federal funding. The refinery aims to scale processing of samarium and gadolinium. These elements appear in nuclear technology and MRI equipment. The plant expects to begin production in 2026.
Demand pressures continue to rise. A report cited by Global News said Canada may need $30 billion in capital investment by 2040 to meet domestic critical mineral demand.
Rare earth elements represent an area with significant potential. Saskatchewan Research Council officials said in 2022 that Canada holds large rare earth resources. The U.S. Geological Survey estimated Canada’s rare-earth oxide equivalent reserves at 830,000 tonnes in 2024. Meanwhile, China holds 44 million tonnes, and Brazil holds 21 million tonnes. Another CBC News report estimated more than 14 million tonnes of rare earth oxides in Canadian ground. There are 21 active rare earth projects moving through exploration and evaluation stages across the country.
Canada also currently has only one producing rare earth mine. Nechalacho in the Northwest Territories, owned by Vital Metals (ASX: VML), ships its ore to Saskatchewan for initial processing before final separation in Norway. China operates thousands of mines, including the massive Bayan Obo complex, and produced 270,000 tonnes of rare earths in 2024.
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