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Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025
Mugglehead Investment Magazine
Alternative investment news based in Vancouver, B.C.
Goldman Sachs thinks gold could hit $4,000 by mid-2026
Goldman Sachs thinks gold could hit $4,000 by mid-2026
Image via Dall-e.

Gold

Goldman Sachs thinks gold could hit $4,000 by mid-2026

On an inflation-adjusted basis, gold almost discovered a new record price, beating the original record set in 1980

Gold has reached multiple all-time highs this week, bypassing the USD$3,300 an ounce mark for the first time ever last Wednesday.

Furthermore, on an inflation-adjusted basis, the yellow metal almost discovered a new record price, beating the original record set in 1980. Goldman Sachs said on Monday that there would be more gains coming in the next few months. The analyst notes that gold could top out over USD$3,700 by the end of the year, even so much as $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026.

Investor’s Business Daily has added about a dozen mining stocks to its flagship IBD 50 list of growth companies.

New additions include DRDGold Ltd (NYSE: DRD), Eldorado Gold Ltd (NYSE: EGO), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), and others.

Furthermore, the dollar index just posted its worst start on record, prompting a surge in buying.

This rally reflects a classic fear influenced trade, fuelled by collapsing investor sentiment.

According to April’s Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey, investor confidence has dropped to its lowest level in three decades. A record 82 per cent of participants said they expect the global economy to shrink, marking the most pessimistic outlook in the survey’s history.

The US dollar has dropped to a three-year low against a basket of global currencies. Traders are waiting for more clarity on President Donald Trump’s trade policies. The ICE US Dollar Index has fallen 8 per cent in 2025, marking its worst start to a year in four decades, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A weaker dollar does offer some benefits. It lowers the price of US exports, making them more attractive to foreign buyers.

Read more: Calibre Mining Q1 production soars alongside the price of gold

Read more: Equinox Gold halts gold production in Mexico after community negotiations breakdown

Retail investors remain underexposed to gold

Foreign central banks have been selling US debt for some time. In recent months, they’ve increased the pressure on longer-dated bonds. From November through February, overseas institutions sold a net USD$90 billion.

Retail investors remain underexposed to gold, despite the rally. Gold-backed ETFs make up less than 2 per cent of all ETF assets, down from about 8 per cent in 2011. Since February, investors have boosted their gold ETF holdings, but levels remain 19 per cent below the October 2020 peak.

Gold mining ETFs hold an even smaller share—less than 0.5 per cent of all equity ETFs.

Despite this, gold stocks have delivered strong returns this year. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index has surged more than 53 per cent through Thursday’s close. Over the same period, the S&P 500 has dropped nearly 10 per cent.

Newmont Corporation (TSE: NGT) (NYSE: NEM), the world’s largest gold miner, is the second-best-performing S&P 500 stock this year. Through April 16, Newmont is up over 50 per cent, trailing only CVS Health, which is up 53 per cent.

Analysts expect Newmont to keep rising. FactSet data shows projected profits will climb 13 per cent to USD$3.92 per share this year. They also forecast an 8 per cent increase to USD$4.23 per share next year.

South African gold stocks are also setting records in 2025. The FTSE/JSE Precious Metals and Mining Index just hit an all-time high. This surge comes as prices broke above R60,000 per ounce for the first time.

Read more: Calibre Mining beats updated gold production guidance with 242,487 ounces

Read more: Calibre Mining’s mineral resource estimate in Talavera gives reasons for optimism

All-time highs present new opportunities for investors

An elevated gold price directly boosts profitability for producers, as their revenues increase without a corresponding rise in production costs.

This expands margins, strengthens balance sheets, and often leads to higher dividends or stock buybacks, attracting investors. High prices also make lower-grade deposits more economical to mine, extending the life of existing operations and justifying new exploration.

As gold hits all-time highs, producers can reinvest in growth, reduce debt, and improve shareholder returns. Additionally, strong prices raise the value of reserves and resources on company books, enhancing market valuations and enabling potential mergers or acquisitions in a bullish environment.

For example, Calibre Mining Corp. (TSE: CXB) (OTCMKTS: CXBMF) has significantly benefited from elevated gold prices.

In Q1 2025, the company produced a record 71,539 ounces of gold, which helped boost its cash reserves to CAD$214.5 million. This strong financial position supports development of the Valentine Gold Mine in Newfoundland and Labrador. Calibre expects the mine to begin processing ore in early Q3 2025 and produce around 200,000 ounces annually.

Furthermore, the company’s impending merger with Equinox Gold Corp. (TSE: EQX) (NYSE American: EQX) positions it as a leading gold producer in the Americas. The combined group is set to become the second-largest gold producer in Canada.

Equinox Gold has also gained from higher gold prices. Its acquisition of Calibre in a USD$1.8 billion all-stock deal strengthens its growth outlook. The combined company plans to produce around 950,000 ounces of gold in 2025. That figure could rise to over 1.2 million ounces once the Greenstone and Valentine projects are fully operational. These developments position Equinox to capitalize on strong gold prices and deliver higher returns.

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Calibre Mining is a sponsor of Mugglehead news coverage

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