TC Energy raises annual EBITDA outlook to C$11.8B to C$12B
The pipeline operator sets a 2027 net capital spending range of C$6B to C$6.5B and approves Midwest expansions targeting 2030 service.
Ines Halvorsen
For 2026, comparable EBITDA of C$11.8 billion to C$12.0 billion is now forecast by TC Energy Corporation TSETRP NYSETRP in its third-quarter update on Thursday. Net income attributable to common shares reached C$1.0 billion in the third quarter of 2026, compared with C$0.8 billion a year earlier.
The North American natural gas pipeline and power company reported third-quarter comparable EBITDA of C$3.0 billion, against C$2.7 billion in 2025. That is a non-GAAP earnings measure, distinct from operating cash flow.
For 2026, management expects capital expenditures at the lower end of its C$6.0 billion to C$6.5 billion range before adjustments for non-controlling interests. Net capital expenditures, which exclude those interests, are forecast at C$5.5 billion to C$6.0 billion.
The Toronto-listed shares TSETRP closed at C$87.52 on Nov. 4 at 4:00 p.m. EST, before Thursday's announcement. That close does not capture a response to the new outlook.
TC Energy also set a 2027 comparable EBITDA forecast of C$12.3 billion to C$12.5 billion. Its 2027 net capital spending forecast is C$6.0 billion to C$6.5 billion. Management expects a five-year comparable EBITDA compound annual growth rate of five to seven per cent through 2031.
"Beyond 2026, we expect that our growth will be driven by the continued conversion of our origination pipeline into sanctioned capital projects," chief executive François Poirier said in the release.
The company has sanctioned approximately C$6 billion of growth projects during 2026. It separately identified approximately C$6 billion pending approval, so that second group remains outside the sanctioned portfolio.
Commercial Structure Limits Coastal GasLink LP's Capital Commitments
The approved Coastal GasLink Phase 2 expansion has an estimated C$4.9 billion cost, according to TC Energy's Nov. 5 release. TC Energy's proportionate committed equity is up to approximately C$250 million, while Coastal GasLink LP secured project-level financing of up to C$3.3 billion.
The expansion would add five compressor stations and associated modifications, with service anticipated in the early 2030s. Firm transportation capacity would increase by approximately 2.0 billion cubic feet a day at that date. The commercial structure includes defined limits on Coastal GasLink LP's capital commitments and construction cost and schedule exposure.
The newly approved Crossroads Expansion targets service in 2030 and is estimated to cost approximately US$1.8 billion. It would add 1.4 billion cubic feet a day, supported by long-term take-or-pay contracts serving growing Midwest power demand, including data centres.
The connected American Midwest expansion also targets 2030 service. Its total estimated cost is approximately US$400 million, with TC Energy's proportionate equity contribution approximately US$100 million. The release describes long-term take-or-pay support but does not name those projects' customers or specify contract lengths.
Another gas infrastructure developer, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. NYSESWX, said on Nov. 4 that its Great Basin expansion remains aimed at fourth-quarter 2028 service. Its certificate application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is targeted for filing by the end of 2026.
Read more: Southwest Gas Holdings reports US$12.8M continuing-operations profit
For TC Energy, the next construction milestone is the expected start of Coastal GasLink Phase 2 work in early 2027.
