Trevi Therapeutics (NASDAQ: TRVI) soared 20 per cent on Thursday, after a new study linked popular weight-loss and diabetes drugs to a higher risk of chronic cough, sending shares to a 52-week high of $13.29 on unusually heavy volume.
This surge marked extended gains of about 25 per cent since late November.
Investors reacted to a newly published cohort study suggesting that popular GLP-1 receptor agonists, such as semaglutide used in drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, may raise the risk of chronic cough.
The study analyzed more than 2 million adults with type 2 diabetes and found GLP-1 receptor agonist use was linked to a 12 per cent higher risk of developing chronic cough compared with other diabetes medications like DPP-4 inhibitors or sulfonylureas. Researchers noted that the risk persisted even after excluding patients with prior reflux conditions, and they proposed potential mechanisms including vagal nerve stimulation or worsening reflux.
Trevi’s experimental therapy, Haduvio (nalbuphine ER), has shown significant reductions in 24-hour cough frequency during Phase 2 trials for refractory chronic cough (RIVER trial) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis-related cough (CORAL trial). Consequently, analysts and traders have pointed to a potentially large market opportunity for the drug.
Recent analyst activity also contributed to the momentum. Oppenheimer upgraded TRVI to $24 on November 14, while Leerink set a $16 target on November 20. In addition, social media discussions amplified the perception of a “perfect storm” for Trevi, as chronic cough cases may increase alongside widespread GLP-1 adoption.
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Strong support form Wall Street analysts
Meanwhile, traders noted that the heightened interest in Haduvio coincided with heavy buying pressure, as the stock traded far above its three-month average volume of roughly 1.8 million shares. Furthermore, the growing dialogue around GLP-1 therapies and their side effects has reinforced investor confidence in Trevi’s emerging treatment.
The company has drawn support from Wall Street, earning an average rating of “Buy” from ten firms covering the stock. Among them, one analyst has issued a sell recommendation. Meanwhile, seven have given a buy rating, and two have assigned a strong buy rating. The average twelve-month price target stands at $21.44.
Recent research notes show mixed adjustments but sustained optimism. Needham & Company LLC lowered its price target from $24.00 to $22.00 while maintaining a buy rating on August 8. D. Boral Capital reiterated a buy rating with a $19.00 target on November 14.
Also, that day Morgan Stanley raised its target from $18.00 to $19.00 and assigned an overweight rating. Raymond James Financial cut its target from $29.00 to $27.00 but kept a strong-buy rating on August 8. B. Riley upgraded TRVI shares to a strong-buy rating on November 17.
Institutional investors have also been active. China Universal Asset Management increased holdings by 4.5 per cent in Q3, while Ameritas Investment Partners added 20.5 per cent. BIT Capital GmbH expanded its stake by 32.0 per cent in Q3.
