World Bank forecasts 23% commodity-price rise as energy costs climb
The bank expects energy prices to rise 32 per cent in 2026, while independent EIA forecasts put oil costs above its baseline.
Theo Marchetti
World Bank forecast on Wednesday that global commodity prices would rise 23 per cent in 2026 from 2025, as supply disruptions lift energy costs and metals prices. Its Oct. 28 outlook projects increases of 32 per cent for energy and 25 per cent for metals, exposing producers to higher selling prices alongside more expensive inputs.
The forecast describes a full-year increase, rather than a further 23 per cent rise from current prices. The bank expects overall commodity prices to decline 7 per cent in 2027, assuming no major intensification of conflicts affecting supplies.
Independent U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts put oil costs above the bank's baseline. The EIA's Oct. 6 outlook forecasts Brent crude averaging US$96 a barrel in 2026, compared with the World Bank's US$91.
For metals producers, a higher selling price increases revenue per tonne sold, while more expensive fuel and freight raise operating costs. The forecasts alone do not establish that miners' margins will widen.
Oil Relief Depends On Supply Recovery
The World Bank expects Brent to ease to an annual average of US$79 a barrel in 2027. Its adverse scenario puts that average at US$105 if conflict escalates, damage to Russian oil infrastructure persists and other supply shocks materialize together.
The bank projects global oil supply falling 5.2 per cent in 2026, while consumption declines 2.5 per cent. Production remains below consumption, it says, forcing further inventory withdrawals and leaving markets more exposed to disruption.
The EIA also expects oil prices to decline in 2027, but forecasts an annual Brent average of US$84. Its outlook assumes most Middle Eastern production returns to pre-conflict averages by the end of the second quarter.
Those are conditional forecasts. The EIA says constrained export routes, higher tanker costs and depleted inventories could sustain volatility even as production recovers.
"Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth," World Bank deputy chief economist Ayhan Kose said in the release.
Metals Prices Face A Smaller Retreat
The bank attributes its metals outlook to supply disruptions and demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres. It forecasts a 3 per cent decline in metals prices in 2027 after the increase projected for 2026.
Observed monthly changes show how differently energy and metals have been moving. The bank's Oct. 2 price update recorded a 25.7 per cent increase in its energy index in September, while metals rose 0.4 per cent.
Those monthly observations measure a different period from the annual forecasts. They show the latest energy surge outpacing metals, rather than demonstrating a matching increase in miners' selling prices.
Precious metals follow another demand channel. The bank forecasts a 40 per cent increase in their prices in 2026, attributing elevated demand for safe-haven assets to geopolitical and policy uncertainty, before some moderation in 2027.
Read more: Gold retreats toward US$4,000 before COMEX futures recover
The World Bank's next monthly commodity-price update is scheduled for Nov. 3, providing another observation of the energy and metals divergence. The EIA's Nov. 10 outlook will update its oil-price and supply-recovery forecasts.
