USGS projects tungsten capacity growth of at least 10 per cent by 2030

The U.S. Geological Survey said on Thursday that tungsten production capacity could rise at least 10 per cent through 2030 in an outlook covering eight minerals and a market served by Nasdaq-listed producers. Almonty Industries Inc. NASDAQALM FRAALI1 reported planned expanded Sangdong ore-processing capacity of up to 1.2 million tonnes annually in its Aug. 11 results.

The agency's Nov. 12 announcement highlighted projections published on Nov. 10, with growth measured against estimated 2025 capacity. China accounts for more than 70 per cent of tungsten supply, so additional worldwide capacity does not itself establish a diversified source of metal.

Almonty shares NASDAQALM traded lower at US$7.72 on Nasdaq at 2:26 p.m. EST on Nov. 12.

A nearer project milestone belongs to Tungsten West plc LONTUN, whose annual accounts for the year ended March 31, 2026 schedule commissioning of its permanent Hemerdon plant in the first quarter of 2027.

Capacity Growth Leaves Concentration Risk

USGS projects natural graphite capacity growth of 20 per cent and antimony growth of 6 per cent through 2030. It also expects U.S. capacity to increase for graphite, antimony and tungsten.

The agency says tungsten has not been mined commercially in the United States since 2015. Its outlook points to Defense Production Act awards supporting new projects in Nevada and Canada.

The report's methodology combines estimated existing capacity with announced expansions, advanced new projects and closures. Capacity measures potential production under sustainable operating conditions; actual output depends on utilization, which can change with prices and market conditions.

"By identifying anticipated changes in production capacity, we can help policymakers and industry better understand potential supply risks and make informed decisions about future investments," lead author Andrew Stewart said in the USGS announcement.

Independent demand projections provide a different horizon. The International Energy Agency's 2026 outlook forecasts demand growth of 50 to 90 per cent for nickel, graphite and rare earths through 2040 under its Stated Policies Scenario.

The IEA's graphite supply assessment combines natural flake and synthetic graphite, while USGS examines natural graphite capacity. Those different definitions and forecast periods prevent a direct calculation of a 2030 surplus or shortage from the two headline projections.

Tungsten Projects Face Commissioning Tests

Almonty's Aug. 11 results described Sangdong in South Korea as remaining in commissioning and ramp-up. Its initial targeted ore throughput was approximately 640,000 tonnes annually, with the fully permitted expansion contemplated to increase that capacity.

Those results also show the company's exposure to tungsten pricing. Almonty reported a second-quarter 2026 European ammonium paratungstate average of US$3,075 per metric tonne unit, compared with US$453 in the corresponding 2025 quarter.

Tungsten West's annual accounts describe phased processing at Hemerdon in southwest England. The chairman reported that fines-gravity processing had commenced, while the restart schedule placed recommissioning of the coarse-gravity circuit in the fourth quarter of 2026.

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The accounts schedule commissioning of the permanent plant in the first quarter of 2027 as part of the planned move to full production.