Eli Lilly raises revenue outlook to US$91B to US$92B
Quarterly sales rose 39 per cent as Mounjaro and Zepbound demand outweighed price declines, while acquisition charges weighed on earnings.
Adrian Kessler
A US$5.5 billion increase in the full-year sales outlook came on Thursday, Oct. 29, as Eli Lilly and Company NYSELLY reported higher demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound. The company now expects 2026 revenue of US$91 billion to US$92 billion.
The Oct. 29 earnings release showed third-quarter revenue of US$24.4 billion, up from US$17.6 billion a year earlier. Reported net income rose to US$6.45 billion from US$5.58 billion, while adjusted earnings per share increased to US$7.48 from US$7.02.
Lilly is a large Indianapolis-based drugmaker selling medicines for diabetes, obesity, cancer and other chronic conditions worldwide. Its updated 2026 full-year adjusted EPS range is US$35 to US$36, including acquisition-related research charges that more than offset an improvement in the underlying forecast.
Shares closed higher at US$1,288.30 in New York on Oct. 28, according to Google Finance's NYSELLY page as of 4:03 p.m. EDT. That close predates the earnings announcement.
Volume Growth Outruns Price Cuts
Lilly's third-quarter 2026 worldwide sales volume increased 53 per cent, while realized prices fell 15 per cent. Mounjaro revenue reached US$10.72 billion, compared with US$6.52 billion a year earlier. Zepbound sales rose to US$5.35 billion from US$3.59 billion.
The company's third-quarter 2026 revenue table also showed US$184 million in quarterly Foundayo sales. The newest key products in oncology, immunology and neuroscience collectively doubled revenue from the corresponding quarter.
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The third-quarter 2026 growth included about US$900 million in benefits, primarily milestones and favourable revisions to rebate and discount estimates. Within that total, Jardiance generated US$410 million in milestones, and Lilly said no further milestones remain.
Pricing pressure was sharper outside the United States, where realized prices fell 29 per cent in the quarter. Lilly attributed that decline primarily to Mounjaro's inclusion on China's National Reimbursement Drug List.
Spending increased alongside sales in 2026. Third-quarter research and development expenses rose 23 per cent to US$4.2 billion, while marketing, selling and administrative expenses increased 14 per cent to US$3.1 billion.
Lilly's third-quarter 2026 acquired research charges reduced quarterly EPS by US$4.57, versus US$0.71 a year earlier, and remained included in adjusted earnings. For the annual forecast, underlying adjusted EPS improved by US$4.07 at the midpoint before those acquisition charges.
"To drive durable long-term growth, we continue to invest in our drug-making and technology capabilities, with multiple business development deals and partnerships signed and closed, and with new manufacturing expansions in Texas and Virginia," Lilly chair and chief executive David A. Ricks said in the release.
Novo Provides The Next Demand Comparison
Novo Nordisk A/S NYSENVO reported adjusted second-quarter sales growth of 7 per cent at constant exchange rates in its Aug. 4 filing. Its 2026 adjusted sales outlook ranged from a 6 per cent decline to flat sales at constant exchange rates, despite raising its forecast on stronger GLP-1 expectations.
Ahead of the Oct. 29 results, Morningstar's earnings preview modelled annual revenue above US$90 billion. Lilly's new range exceeds that threshold, although Morningstar did not provide a precise estimate in the preview.
For broader sector context, the iShares Biotechnology ETF NASDAQIBB closed at US$216.35 on Oct. 28, according to Google Finance as of 4 p.m. EDT.
Lilly reported FDA approval of Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk in adults with type 2 diabetes. It also reported approval of Onswik, a once-weekly basal insulin for adults with type 2 diabetes.
The regulatory updates included approval of Inluriyo with Verzenio for adults with ER-positive, HER2-negative, ESR1-mutated advanced or metastatic breast cancer. Its Jaypirca indication expanded to untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma, adding to the commercial oncology portfolio.
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Lilly plans to start Phase 3 EloraTZP trials in the fourth quarter of 2026. Novo's Nov. 4 results will provide the next comparison of GLP-1 sales growth and annual expectations.
